TwoPennies

So Much For The Afterglow

I am so bad at keeping up with the blog.  This is only about two months late.

Well, the awesomeness wore off pretty fast.  In my haste to become a runner, I forgot about the fact that my knees were pretty banged up in former days.  My left kneecap doesn’t track properly, and it wasn’t too happy with my idea of pounding pavement for several miles.  It turned out that I inflamed the cartilage in both knees (the left much worse than the right), and I got to spend some time getting familiar with crutches.  That was quite a buzzkill.  The first week really sucked, mostly because I couldn’t stay off my feet as much as I needed to, but also because I wasn’t ready to give up on running.  We went to Disneyland on April 20^th and I had to rent one of the electric carts in order to get around.  Putting around on the cart made me determined to keep exercising, because I don’t want to end up having to rely on one of those things to get around when I’m old.  No thanks.

The kind of funny thing is that my time wasn’t all that bad.  Even after nearly dying in the middle of the race my time was 52 minutes for 8k, so I felt relatively okay.  I got to participate in a run to benefit abuse victims, which is a subject that is very sensitive for me (unfortunately, far too many people are victims of abuse, including one that is too painful to discuss).  I ended up 15^th out of my age group and, most importantly, did not die. 

After a few weeks of recovery, I did get back into running.  I got some knee supports to keep the kneecaps in place.  I bought new shoes at Phidippides in Encino, and I highly recommend them if you don’t know what kind of running shoe to buy.  They were extraordinarily helpful, taking the time to watch me run and comparing several kinds of shoes until I found one that worked well.  I’m back to running 5 miles and my knees have decided to cooperate, though it seems a tenuous relationship at best.  I’m looking forward to the Disneyland Half Marathon in August and whatever lies beyond!

Obama: More of the Same Old Crap

I caught a bit of Barack Obama's news conference from Florida while I was home for lunch today, the first I've remotely paid attention to the election season for quite some time, and I was immediately struck by a few points of inanity.  Other inanity took some time to sink in.

First, Obama complained that McCain's recently-announced support for opening up offshore drilling wouldn't do anything to help ease the high price of gas today, or tomorrow, or next year, or in the next five years.  He says that it'll be a generation before any significant oil production will come online from such drilling, and that increasing domestic production will simply "worsen our addition to oil" while putting off needed investments in alternate energy sources.

OK, setting aside for the moment that opening up future drilling has nothing whatsoever to do with whether we also pursue alternate energy sources, Mr. Obama is correct that opening new areas to future oil production won't have an immediate impact on gas prices.

But so what?  If it takes 10-15 years to get production of new oil fields up and running, that's an argument for starting to drill 10-15 years AGO, not an argument against starting the process now so that in 10-15 years we have that production available.

Anyhow, so he's right that McCain's suggestion won't ease gas prices tomorrow.  What's Mr. Obama's suggested alternative?  Massive investment in alternative energy sources.

It's a great idea.  We should absolutely invest heavily in alternate energy.  But that ain't gonna ease the price at the pump tomorrow, either.  Why on Earth could we not do BOTH these things at the same time?  Open up the drilling, and work on alternative sources of energy, and in a generation perhaps both projects will bear fruit.  Meanwhile, certain uses of petroleum products (and by-products) will stick with us for a very long time.  Gasoline isn't the only use for oil, not by a long shot, and not all of those other uses are energy-related either.  We're still going to need oil even with alternative energy sources.

But Mr. Obama didn't stop there.  Of course he has a "solution" to the pain at the pump.  He wants to send out a $1,000 stimulus check to 95% of American families.  Apparently, so that they can buy gas.

And how will he pay for this "stimulus" check?  Why, taxing those evil oil companies who are making "windfall" profits.  Which profits come from people paying high prices at the pump.  Which prices they'll be better able to pay, thanks to the "stimulus" check paid for out of -- oil company profits.

Anybody else see a problem with this?

But it did take some time for the full stupidity of this plan to sink in.  Obama says that 95% of American families will benefit from this $1,000 freebie.  I was a bit distracted by the certain knowledge that I'll doubtless be firmly in that 5% who can pound sand.  But then I started thinking... how much would that come to, anyway?  One thousand smackers for 95% of American families?  Wow, that seems like a lot.  But how much, really?

A little sleuthing on the Internet allows us to get a ballpark idea.  According to the IRS, in the last tax year with data available (2005) there were 134.4 million individual tax returns filed.  Now, granted, that doesn't match up exactly with the number of families in the country, but we're just looking for a ballpark figure (and with 300 million people in the US, we're at least within an order of magnitude here).  So, if we assume that 95% of those tax returns will get the $1,000 check, that means a cool grand going out to more than 127 million families.

What's the bill for that?  Not counting postage, of course, we're looking at $127 BILLION in "stimulus" checks (at least the $1K makes the math easy).  Paid for, Obama promises, out of the windfall profits tax on evil oil companies.

How much money could such a tax generate to pay for these checks?  A lot depends on the definition of "windfall" profits.  But for reference, the combined total profits of the oil industry in 2007 came to $155 billion.  Paying for Obama's giveaway would require confiscating about 82% of all industry profits in tax.  Never mind that while the $155 billion in profit is truly staggering, that's on total industry revenues of $1.9 TRILLION.  Making the industry profit margin a respectable (but moderate) 8% or so.  Hardly a windfall (search around a bit for other industry profit margins to see for yourself).

So what we have here is another vacuous attempt at pandering by Mr. Obama, a ploy to buy off the votes of the middle class with a fat government giveaway that can't possibly be paid for the way he claims it would.

Can we claim Hope and Change will save the day, while actually falling back into the same old patterns of politics as usual?

YES WE CAN.

[UPDATE]:  Apparently Obama claims a cost of only $50 billion for his "stimulus" plan.  I'm not sure how 50 million families make up 95% of America, but then I guess when you're full of crap in the first place, your numbers don't really need to add up.

Couldn't happen to a nicer guy...

Congratulations Terry Porter.  Nice to see a good guy get another shot at success.

Pyramid Scheme

A recent comment/question in my original FSX post sent me off in search of the Egyptian pyramids.  Granted, since I live in Las Vegas I can look outside my window and see a big freakin' pyramid any time... but it's not QUITE the same thing, now, is it?

In deference to "Lightning" who posted the original question, in case he wanted to first experience them within the game directly, screen shots are after the jump... but the quick answer to his question is, start at Cairo International Airport, then head more-or-less West and you just about can't miss them.

Another House Update

The tile and carpet installation in the new house is complete.  I've posted photos of the new look on this page for you to check out!

By the way, the repair of the ceiling turned out pretty well, much better than I expected.  Unless you know exactly where to look, you certainly wouldn't notice anything odd.

And, I just ordered my fridge from Home Depot today, it'll be delivered next Saturday.  I bought a kitchen table and an entertainment console from RC Willey yesterday, those will also be delivered next Saturday.  Once I get a bedroom set and have that delivered, I'll be ready to actually move in to the place.  Probably around 2 months after I actually bought the house.  Eh, what's the rush, right?  :-D

Logos can be funny little things...

From Andrew Sullivan, by way of Jack Bog...

When the British government wanted to rebrand the Office of Government Commerce, they came up with a new logo:

Do you see what's wrong with this (dirty) picture? A little help after the break...

A Little Oooopsie...

So the new house has been painted and otherwise worked on over the past month... and the latest upgrade has been tile (about twice as much as I originally intended) and new carpet (also much more than originally expected... but it's all for the best).

With my trip to San Diego getting in the way a bit, scheduling has been a bit tricky.  The tile guys came out Friday, and were expected to be done by Sunday -- I made it clear that I was going to be out of town so they needed to finish in time.  Then the carpet guys would arrive on Wednesday to finish the flooring.  No problem, right?

Well, Sunday came and went, with no word from the tile guys (different installers than the carpet) that they were done -- or that they were ready to return my key to the place.  So I dropped by the house Sunday afternoon to check in, since they told me Saturday that they'd be done Sunday morning.  Nobody was around, but the tile was all installed as expected.  I did notice that the hose from the wall valve to the toilet in the upstairs guest bathroom was broken off (sitting on the tub in that room, actually) and the valve was wrapped up.  So I naturally assumed that they were intending to fix that issue before they returned my key.  No problem, if they can wait for payment on the job, I can wait for them to finish.

I got a call from the tile install manager on Monday while I was in San Diego, asking if the tile was done to my satisfaction and could we arrange payment.  I explained, since he apparently didn't get the word somehow that I would be unavailable until Wednesday, that I was out of town.  But I pointed out what I'd seen on Sunday when I checked, and he didn't know anything about it.  He said he'd check up on it and get back to me, and we could then meet on Wednesday to finalize everything.

Tuesday night when I returned from San Diego, I stopped by the house to see if they'd fixed the toilet yet.  Imagine my delight to find that not only was the toilet not fixed, but the valve had been leaking the whole time (they tile guys apparently put a little clear plastic cup under the leak on Sunday, which I hadn't noticed before).  But after 3 days of inattention, that little cup had overflowed -- and there was about 1/4" of standing water on the new tile floor.  After unleashing a string of profanity, I grabbed the paper towels to begin sopping up the water... and when the first roll ran out, I had to head downstairs for another.  That's when I noticed the lovely hanging pouch of water bulging from the ceiling in the dining room, easily sagging a good 3 inches down.  Fortunately (I guess) that pouch hadn't leaked, but it was obviously trouble and certainly ruined the new paint job in that part of the house (never mind the potential for mold after sitting for 3 days...)

So I popped on the phone to the tile manager right away, and explained that not only was the toilet not fixed, but he had some significant water damage to take care of ASAP.  He was nice enough about it and assured me that he'd be over first thing in the morning, and they'd take care of whatever needed to be done to fix the problem.  Doesn't excuse the problem in the first place, but at least he had the right attitude about taking responsibility.

Anyhow, this morning I met up with the tile guys, while the carpet guys started their work -- they fixed the toilet right away, and told me that they wanted to wait until the family room ceiling dried out, then they'd just scrape away the paint pouch and "touch up" the ceiling.  I suggested in no uncertain terms that after an extended soak, perhaps a "touch up" would be insufficient.  So, they agreed to cut out the surrounding drywall and install a new piece, then repaint the resulting patch.  We'll see how that goes...

This evening (Wednesday night) I took a quick picture of the gaping hole in my family room ceiling, for your viewing pleasure...

On the bright side, the tile itself looks fantastic... and the carpet ain't half bad, either. I'll be sure to post pictures as soon as I get a chance to take some in the daylight.

The show's over, folks...

The National Indian Gaming Association trade show, that is... I spent Monday and Tuesday in beautiful San Diego (though, alas, I didn't get to see much of it... about 3 blocks from the convention center at most, and a little bit of the 3rd base at PETCO Park, visible from my hotel room) helping a bit with setup the first day, and helping a bit with manning the booth the second day.  Of course, I and all of the engineers in the company have been spending the last several weeks (if not months) working feverishly to get products ready for this show.  To friends and family who wonder where the hell I've been, that's why you've not heard from me for so long.

I even pulled an all-nighter last Thursday, trying to get my own game ready to be loaded on the truck Friday.  Haven't done one of those in a long time (not work-related, anyhow...) and I'm definitely getting too old for that kind of stunt...

But the results of all that work paid off nicely once the public got to see our exciting new products.  There were a few hiccups along the way, but mostly things went pretty smooth, and the response to the games (and the oversized cabinets) was very encouraging.

Here are a few pictures I took of the booth Monday afternoon, after the games had been set up.  At this point the place was still a bit of a mess with packing materials and other miscellaneous stuff cluttering the floor, but at least this will give you an idea of the layout and the dimensions of the games themselves.  The people in these photos are various coworkers of mine, who shall remain nameless to protect the innocent...   ;-)

This picture is a bit overexposed (I seem to have serious flash issues with my camera) but it certainly shows off the booth itself -- the truss system with banners covered almost all of the 20' x 40' booth space that we had.  Above the truss (not pictured here) was a rotunda with our company logos highlighted, visible from halfway across the convention floor.

This shows off 3 of the 4 game types we had on display.  In the foreground to the right, we have our 42" touch screen display games.  Center booth are the two 46" non-touch screen games in massive ("Colossal") cabinets.  And in the background to the left you can see a couple of our dual-screen 26" display games with LED light boxes around the top monitors, used in the bonus rounds of the game.

The picture below is the same basic shot, but taken without flash entirely.  The booth is a bit dark but the game monitors came out much better, and you can see the light boxes on those 26" games in the back (they're in the middle of animating, which is why not all of the boxes are lit at the moment).  Those lights are pretty impressive, each box can be backlit by an LED grid capable of displaying one of more than 65,000 unique colors, which really sets our machines apart from others you might see in a casino.

The picture below shows off the 4th type of game configuration that we displayed, a 5-reel mechanical machine (similar to the "old school" slot machines when physical reels spin around rather than a video display of reels).  Ours also happens to have a 26" video touchscreen mounted above the reels, which we use for bonus modes and other display purposes.  The cabinet configuration is flexible enough that if we wanted to, we could mount the same LED light box / vertical video display seen in the 26" video product above, on top of the mechanical reels.  The lighting in this photo makes it hard to see, but those are 3 white reel strips in the middle, with a red strip on the left and a blue strip on the right which contain bonus and multiplier symbols.

This is a shot of the title that I've been working on for the past month or so.  It's another 5-reel mechanical game with video top bonus.  Again, there are three white reels in the middle, and a couple of black reels on the sides for bonus and multiplier symbols.  This configuration also happens to have a small 6" display set just below the reels, for showing the player's credit balance and current wager information.

This photo shows another angle on the 26" video product in the background, with a pair of 42" video games on the right and just a bit of the 46" Colossal cabinet on the left.  Lighting is again problematic, but hopefully you can see the LED effects in the bonus boards of those 26" games (and also get a sense of the scale of these cabinets, with a real live person in the picture for comparison!)

Here's another shot of the same end of the booth as the picture directly above.  Unfortunately I didn't get a non-flash version of this angle, so the screens of the games are not clear at all.

Finally, again a shot of the center of the booth and those massive 46" cabinets.  The person in the foreground is standing about 10 feet away from that game, more or less -- I believe those cabinets are about 9 feet tall.  We've actually been unable to place them in some casinos because their ceilings were too low to handle the machine!  This is a "specialty" cabinet, so most casinos would only put one on the floor.  Some of the bigger places, with thousands of machines, might place 3 or 4.

Anyhow, now that we've gotten past the show, hopefully things will settle down just a bit.  Of course, there's always the next deadline... but at least I won't be personally trying to code a game for that one, so I might get home before midnight once in a while...

Victory for Victims 8k in Encino, CA

Race day.  I was both excited and nervous about doing this; excited about doing something competitive for the first time in about a century, and nervous because I have no idea what I’m doing and I don’t know how hardcore people are going to be.  I woke up about 6 times last night like a kid waiting for Christmas.

The weather was great and it was a pretty easy trip to the park.  There were parking enforcement officers directing traffic, which was nice.  It turned out to be a pretty big event; it was managed by W2 Promotions, who seem to know what they are doing.  There were quite a few booths for fitness clubs, restaurants, etc.  The Laker Girls and Rafer Johnson (former Olympic decathlete) were there, and some radio DJ was the emcee.  The Laker Girls warmed up the crowd and then we gathered by the starting line; I was right behind actor James Remar, so I had a celebrity sighting for the day.  The only tough part was that the 5k run/walk people also started with us, so there was quite a crowd in the start area and many of them would be slow.  I managed to weave through that bit without spraining an ankle (my initial fear) and trotted on.

The run went well for a while, but then my left knee decided to start hurting before I had even made it to the first water station about 1/3 of the way into the race.  I managed to grab a cup of water but some dude ran into me in the process and I nearly dumped water on the poor race volunteer.  I’m sure she had worse, but I felt bad.

My pace got worse and worse as my knee started screaming at me.  I thought about walking every so often, but I didn’t think I would want to run again if I broke stride.  The pain got so bad, though, that I did slow to a walk at the second water station at 2/3 completion (another dude ran into me then as well).  I didn’t walk far, but it really sucked trying to run again.  I managed to run/hobble slowly the rest of the way, finishing in about 54 minutes.  Not great, but if my knee wasn’t so bad I think I would have been happy with my result.  I’m not sure if I beat James Remar; he was around me much of the way, but at the end I was only thinking about that blasted knee.

I got some water and a banana at the finish, and could have had some food and even ice cream (Ben and Jerry’s was there) if I wanted to stand in line.  I did score some assorted health drinks to go with the free mechanics gloves (weird, but kind of handy), shirt and water bottle that were in the goody bag.

I finished and I did not die, so I accomplished my objectives.  I may have no cartilage in my left knee, however, which is not at all fun.  I’m working Tylenol, Sportscreme and ice like an old football player, and I’m serious need of a massage, but I feel awesome.

It was a pretty cool experience for my first race.

Paint Job Complete

The painters finished my house earlier in the week, and I've finally had a chance to get over there in the daylight to take pictures.  I've posted the before and after shots on this page.  Let me know what you think!

I Want to Run, I Want to Hide

I want to tear down the walls that hold me inside.  Cool song.

 

I am going to run my first road race tomorrow—the Victory for Victims 8k in Encino.  I’m hoping to finish the race and not die.  I have never been a runner; I played plenty of sports, but never ever was excited about running for no reason.  In fact, I really hated any sort of plain running at all, and never understood anyone who enjoyed it.  Naturally I am concerned that I have gone insane.   

Painting the House

I'm getting ready to have the interior of the new house painted, and I've got pictures of my color choices posted here.  There's one decision yet to be made, so if you've got feedback let me know right quick -- the painters begin work on Friday, so I only have a few days to nail down my plans.

UPDATE:  Since posting this item, I noticed the automatic page name given to the permalink for this entry.  I wonder how many search hits THAT'S going to generate for me???  :-D

Video Link

So, there's a bit of a mess in the Democratic Party these days...

It's Official!

About 5:15pm this afternoon, I got the keys to the new house.

Hello, house payments through April, 2038...

...about 5 years before I'll actually be able to retire at age 73...

Buying a House

It's been a long time coming, but I'm finally almost a real live homeowner!  We had the house inspection this morning, which was the last major potential roadblock -- I was very concerned that there would be something seriously wrong with the house, since it's been on the market for a long time.  But fortunately, after a very thorough inspection, we got what my realtor described as one of the cleanest inspection reports he'd ever seen.  Nothing at all serious to speak of, just a few very minor cosmetic cracks, and a minor leak in the jacuzzi.

So now I'm just waiting for the loan docs to be processed, and I should be good to go.  There's a good chance that I'll close by Friday, otherwise it should be next week.

And then I too can participate in the expense -- er, JOY that is home ownership.  ;-)

For those who are interested, I've posted a page of photos that I took during the inspection.

This is what I'm talking about...

A while back I got into a discussion about the "cult of personality" surrounding Barack Obama.

By which I mean, a large number of the man's supporters are exceedingly enthusiastic for him, personally, without regard to his policies (in many cases, without actually understanding his policies).

This article from across the pond highlights perfectly what I'm talking about.  Especially with regard to the youth vote.

For example:

Sitting in the audience, Alex Dukeman, 17, says that she expects Mr Obama to introduce universal healthcare. But isn’t his plan voluntary while Mrs Clinton promises a compulsory mandate? “I just think he is a likable guy and he inspires people,” she replies.

...

Donny Murray, 21, says that Mr Obama “has definitely got a better plan” for tackling global warming. How so? “I’m not sure about the specifics, I just think he’ll get more people involved,” he says.

Notice that?  When challenged on their assertions about what Obama would actually do, they fall back on "I just think..."

Except that apparently, they don't.

But hey, why worry?  If GW Bush has shown us anything, it's that who we elect President doesn't really matter, right?

Happy Grammar Day!

Pedants Unite!!!

(Tip o' the hat to KimY)

Trying to make things interesting...

Ralph Nader is jumping into the fray again.

The Democrats have been dismissive of Nader, while at the same time claiming that his 2.7% of the vote cost them the 2000 election.

Nader, of course, doesn't have a prayer of actually winning, nor even breaking out of the single digits if he makes it all the way to November.

But nationally, this year is not going to be the "landslide" for Democrats that Nader claims it should be.  I think the Democrats have an edge, but it's still going to be close no matter what.  And in that environment, if Nader can pull even 2% of the vote away from the Democrats, it may in fact make the difference.  Of course, if he gets only the 0.3% that he achieved in 2004, he won't likely be a factor -- depending on which states give him better numbers.

Gotta love Side Show Ralph's tenacity, at least.  You'd think after two previous disastrously ineffective attempts, he'd maybe get the message.  But he's stuck on this belief that there's essentially no difference between Democrats and Republicans.  On some issues he's right about that, but there are plenty of differences on important issues that it really does matter which party is in control (or, ideally, that both parties must share control).

Here's my theory -- assuming that he actually does get on the ballot in a significant number of states, I think he does better than 2004's showing, but not quite as well as he did in 2000.  Reason being, he had novelty going for him in 2000, and we had yet to fully understand what direction GWB would take the country.  In 2004, there was a more concerted effort to oust Bush (resulting, interestingly, in a greater margin of victory for the President in the popular vote) and Nader had trouble getting on the ballot in all states.

But this time around, after 2 years of a Democrat-controlled Congress, that august body enjoys lower approval ratings than the President himself.  A certain segment of the population may have come to believe Nader's assertion that the Democrats and Republicans are essentially interchangeable.  Certainly there's significant dissatisfaction with Congressional Democrats after 2 years in the majority, and that may manifest itself in more protest votes from the far left wing for Nader.

If Clinton somehow pulls out the nomination, I guarantee that Nader takes enough votes to hand the election to McCain (though I don't think he needs the help in that case).  With Obama, Nader is not likely to be as much of a factor, but still could play a decisive role.

Next up... wait for Ron Paul to decide to run as an independent candidate, and watch 10% of the Republican base swing over to him.

From the Department of Redundancy Department

So, what do you suppose the folks at Old Spice think "and/or" means, exactly????

(Seen in an online ad at The Onion)

The Huckster's In Play

So the final tally isn't yet available, but it's looking like Mike Huckabee has trounced Mitt Romney as the #2 guy for the Republicans this Super-Duper-Tuesday.

Of course Arizona Senator John McCain was the big Republican winner this evening, surging into a commanding lead in the delegate count, though still only about halfway to the number of delegates needed to secure the nomination outright.  And the big loser was Romney, who had been trying to position himself as the "conservative" alternative to moderate McCain.  Voters in most states appeared to see Huckabee as the conservative alternative instead, although Huckabee's major wins occurred in the South among evangelical Christians, who may have had more of a problem with Romney's Mormonism than anything else.

At any rate, it seems to me that given the generally warm relations between McCain and Huckabee, and the strong regional showing by Huckabee in an area where McCain is relatively weak, this may be a setup for an eventual McCain-Huckabee ticket in November.

I can only hope...  McCain-Huckabee would have a very good chance of beating Obama-Anyone, and would virtually guarantee a victory over Clinton-Anyone.

But then, that would be the smart thing for the Republicans to do -- so I'm not holding my breath that it'll happen. 

It would also be good for the country, by the way, as McCain is more of a fiscal conservative while socially moderate, and Huckabee seems more of a genuinely compassionate conservative, than prior Republican occupants of the White House have been.  Such an outcome could signal a revival of the Republican party as a reasonable, moderate force in American politics.

Like I say, I'm not holding my breath.  But if that day comes when the Republicans nominate forces of (relative) moderation, I just might be able to register as a Republican again.

Don't ya hate when this happens?

Gross, yet compelling (hat tip to Jeffy D):

McCain's Victory

Senator John McCain managed to defeat his close rival Mitt Romney in the Florida Republican Primary on Tuesday, putting him in the lead in delegate count towards that party's nomination.

He also demonstrated a very important point -- prior wins for McCain came largely in states with relatively open primaries/caucuses, where Independent voters were able to give him an edge.  The Florida contest, however, was closed to Republicans only, and many people expected Romney to do better among the "party faithful" since McCain is not particularly well-liked by the Republican party apparatus and is subject to criticism for being too moderate.  That criticism may be intensified by the reported endorsement of McCain by soon-to-drop-out Rudy Giuliani.  Giuliani has been consistently knocked by social conservatives for his relatively moderate stands on abortion, gun control and gay rights; Giuliani and McCain have both been knocked for their stands on immigration as well, so it remains to be seen whether Giuliani's endorsement will help or hurt McCain in the remaining primary season.  It likely will help in the general election in November, however, if McCain makes it that far.

I liked McCain in 2000, and was sorry to see him forced out of the running that year.  I watched him court the Bush camp over the past 8 years with some distress, as he apparently was trying to establish himself as "next in line" in the Republican party after Bush.  During this campaign he's been all over the board trying to be moderate enough to appeal to Independents but conservative enough to try to gain the support of the far right.  It didn't look like that approach would work out for him, but after Florida, it just might.

And I'll go out on a limb here: the outcome in November will be determined by the Republican nomination alone, no matter what the Democrats do.  If McCain gets the nod, he'll beat either Clinton or Obama, whichever one the Democrats choose.  And if McCain doesn't get the nod, then whoever does will be defeated by Clinton or Obama, whichever one the Democrats choose.

I'm feeling a great deal more optimistic about 4 more years of divided government than I have in a long while.  Let's hope McCain is able to pull it off...

Do you suck at Photoshop?

Yeah, I do.  But fortunately there are helpful tutorials available online (videos after the jump, not necessarily safe for work)...

How fast can you type???

This one's tough because it measures speed & accuracy of your typing skills at least as well as how quickly you can name the 50 states.  Plus, they give you a freakin' map as a guide, so I would hope you could get all 50 states when you're lookin' right at them!

(Hat Tip to Bojack)

In 2m 11s

Click here to Play

Results in Iowa

The results are still trailing in as I write this, but the winners in Iowa have been declared.

For the Republicans, as I predicted Mike Huckabee took the top spot (though by a bigger margin than I expected).  Romney was a solid #2, and at this point it's still a toss-up for #3 between Fred Thompson and John McCain.

On the Democratic side, I was right about Edwards and Clinton being very close, but I was way off in thinking that Barack Obama would be right there with them.  Instead, he took the top spot by as large a margin as Huckabee did in the other party.  Meanwhile Edwards and Clinton are still scrapping over the #2/#3 spots, with a slight edge to Edwards at this point.

It is interesting to review the breakdown in entrance/exit polls regarding where each candidate received his or her support.

In the Democratic caucuses, one striking note is that Obama's margin of victory appears largely made up of non-Democrats:  Independents and Republicans who participated in the Democratic caucus went more than 40% for Obama, while among Democrats themselves Obama and Clinton were neck-and-neck at around 31/32%.  Fully 20% of the participants in the Democratic caucus were self-identified as Independent rather than Democrat, and that seems to be where Obama has his strongest showing.

Meanwhile, in the Republican caucuses, of particular note is the fact that 60% of caucus-goers identify themselves as "Born-again or evangelical Christians", and almost half of that number supported Huckabee (a Baptist minister), far more than any other candidate, and more than twice as many as supported Romney.  That likely tracks with another interesting statistic, almost half of all Republican caucus-goers rated "Shares my values" as the ONE characteristic most important in selecting a candidate; of those voters, 44% went for Huckabee, again almost twice as many as supported Romney.  Also, those voters who think that shared religious views matter somewhat or a great deal (a whopping 67%), perhaps not surprisingly had a strong affinity for Huckabee over Romney, a Mormon.  Independents also were a significant part of the Republican caucuses (13% of caucus-goers), however those Independents strongly favored McCain and Ron Paul over the other candidates in the race.

So what does this mean going forward?

For Obama, while this will doubtless give him a bump, the large lift he got tonight from independent voters may be harder to achieve in other states with more closed systems.  On the other hand, it could be that his candidacy may prompt non-affiliated voters to register as Democrats in order to vote for him, which could help broaden the base of that party.  For Edwards, this has got to be a disappointment and most likely means that he'll be brushed aside after New Hampshire (in just 5 more days).  However, he might just be positioned for another run as VP (though honestly some of the maneuvering today makes me think that protestations aside, perhaps Richardson is really angling to share a ticket with Obama in the fall).  Clinton has enough money to take this loss in stride, but certainly she'll need to adjust her message to shore up support.  She does need to win in New Hampshire, or else it's going to be a very long month leading up to Super-Duper Tuesday.

For Huckabee, this is likely a positive sign that he'll be able to skip past New Hampshire (where his religious background won't play as strongly) and into other, later states where he can again use his religious views to his advantage.  He's definitely a serious player on the Republican stage, now, however.  Romney is currently fighting McCain for first place in NH, but if Huckabee can squeeze in there to take #2 (somewhat doubtful, but certainly possible with a bump from his significant win tonight) and shut Romney out to even a close #3, it could be the end of Romney's run as well.  And McCain, who basically conceded Iowa early to favor New Hampshire, should be able to hang in long enough to make things interesting for the other guys.  McCain won NH in 2000, and was running very strong in South Carolina shortly thereafter until some dirty tricks from the Bush camp that year caused him serious problems.  Basically, the Republican field is still wide open and may very well not be decided until the actual convention (for a change!)

Off to the Races

It's finally here... the big day in Iowa.  Soon to be followed by New Hampshire, Nevada, and a host of other states over the next few weeks.

Just for the record, I'm going to predict that the Republican side comes out Huckabee / Romney / McCain today.  Even if Huckabee comes in 2nd to Romney, he'll have to be considered the big winner on the Republican side for surging out of the pack of "also-rans" into a prominent showing (puts me in mind of a certain other Arkansas governor 16 years ago who became the "Comeback Kid" when he placed 2nd in Iowa).

The Democratic side is really too tough to call.  My gut feeling is Edwards / Obama / Clinton, all within a couple of points of each other.  Could be any combination of the three.  If Obama comes in 3rd, he's in bad shape -- so much for that tide of change that he wants to ride.  If Clinton comes in 3rd, she's gonna have a lot of 'splainin' to do to those $100M worth of donors to her campaign.  If Edwards comes in 3rd, his campaign is basically done -- he's been running non-stop in Iowa for the past 6 years, essentially, and if they know him this well and still don't support him, he's toast.  I'm assuming that Clinton wins New Hampshire hands down, so it's vitally important for Edwards and Obama to have a strong showing in Iowa.

Anyhow, it'll sure be interesting to see how the day turns out.  And only 10 more months of this stuff before the big election in November!

Quote of the Day

"Being in politics is like being a football coach. You have to be smart enough to understand the game, and dumb enough to think it's important."

-- Senator Eugene McCarthy

Here's what I'm thinking...

I got another e-mail from desperately-trying-to-appear-relevant John Kerry on Wednesday afternoon, with a subject line "here's what I'm thinking" (no caps to begin the subject, which I guess proves Kerry's "net cred" or something?)  It detailed the efforts of "team johnkerry.com" to write up an e-mail listing all the ways Republicans suck for blocking all the good and wonderful things Kerry and his ilk would love to do for the country, if only the Republicans didn't suck so bad.  And did he mention that Republicans suck?

Wait a minute, aren't the Democrats in the MAJORITY now?  Haven't they been for almost a full YEAR already?

Ah, but of course thanks to various Senate rules, individuals in that august body have a great deal of power to block action -- in many ways, each Senator sort of has veto power (that's an oversimplification and technically inaccurate, but the point is that individuals have great power to stop things from happening, not so much power to make things happen -- which, incidentally, is exactly how it should be...)

So being in the majority in the Senate doesn't necessarily mean that you can bully your agenda through without worrying about whose toes you've stepped on. 

But OK, the point Kerry was trying to make is that the Democrats have this agenda that they want to push, but alas, the "Roadblock Republicans" (as he's fond of calling them, very catchy) are standing in the way.

He doesn't want to get into the details of all the "tricks" the Republicans are playing to block action (i.e., the way they're following the Senate rules to their advantage), because as he says, "You already know what's not getting done."

Furthermore, "[Y]ou're already feeling the impact of the good things these Republicans have stopped us from doing — on Iraq, on global climate change, on energy policy, and on children's health care."

Er.... how exactly does one "feel the impact" of something that DOESN'T happen?

But whatever.  I understand that the good Senator is frustrated by the inability of his party to effect changes that he'd like to see, and of course I fully understand his desire to elect more Democrats to the Senate (much, but not all, of that negative power that individuals have in the Senate can be mitigated with a 60-seat majority; the Democrats currently hold a slim 51-49 effective majority).  I disagree with his goals, but I don't fault him for having them.

The really interesting thing, though, is this paragraph early in his message (emphasis mine):

"I fought for 13 years in the minority to stop Republicans from doing bad things, we broke the bank in 2006 here at the johnkerry.com community to win a majority so we could make good things happen, but still the Republicans are standing in the way."

So here's what I'M thinking:  Wow, that's CHUTZPAH! 

He's complaining that after spending 13 years in the minority, by his own admission (really, it was more of a boast) actively trying to obstruct the agenda of the majority, now that he's in the majority it's a terrible thing that the other party can prevent some things from happening in the Senate.  "Uh, hello, Kettle?  This is the Pot..."

Furthermore, after lamenting the lack of progress in this Congress towards achieving the Democratic party agenda, what is Kerry's offered solution?

"You don't need another laundry list — you just need a roadmap to changing the Senate. And that starts by changing more Senators. Repeat what you did in 2006. Grow that majority."

So in 2006 we got a Democratic majority, which failed to deliver on all their promises.  The best way to turn that around is to "change the Senate" by REPEATING what happened in 2006 and get more ineffective Democrats?  What, the way to improve the situation is to "change" the Senate from a slim Democratic majority to a somewhat-less-slim Democratic majority?  Big time change there, Senator!

Of course, what else is he going to say?  But I just find it funny that the majority party has, for the past year, been acting as if it was still in the minority.  It seems every time I turn around, there's a Democrat complaining about how the Republicans are standing in the way.  Boy, if not for those dastardly Republicans thwarting their every move, those Democrats would have made America a bona fide Nirvana already...

One way around that problem is, of course, to get a big enough majority that you can actually ignore the concerns of the other party.  It's gonna be tough for the Democrats to pick up 9 more seats in the Senate in 2008, though.  In a local angle -- local to Oregon, anyhow -- Kerry named Jeff "Merkely" [sic] as one of the Democrats to target for a seat to pick up, hoping to oust current Oregon Senator Gordon Smith.  (Tough luck, Steve Novick, guess you didn't suck up to the right people in the national party organization... though at least Kerry didn't spell your name wrong!)

The other, more desirable way to go would be to, I dunno, maybe COMPROMISE a bit on legislation to find approaches that are acceptable to everyone?  Or at least to enough members of the other party to gain the support needed to push it through?

But then it seems that the Democrats are determined to prove that they can be just as obstinate as the Republicans were when they ran the show.  Yippee for party parity!

Quote of the Day

"Talent hits a target no one else can hit; Genius hits a target no one else can see."

-- Arthur Schopenhauer

The Obligations of Success

I've been meaning to post about this topic for a while now.  Browsing the web the other day, I ran across a perfect example of the sort of pervasive attitude I consistently find from “progressive” folks regarding who (or what) is responsible for individual success in this country, and what obligations should be placed upon those who are successful.

I get really tired of anti-tax, morally corrupt idiots posting on here. You want to cut taxes until bridges fall down, believe that everyone must pull themselves up by their "bootstraps", but the irony is you ARROGANTLY refuse to realize that this country and all of its social benefits and taxes has allowed you the opportunity to be successful.

This reminded me of another comment made in an earlier thread by one of the founders/editors of that web site, in direct response to something I had posted:

[T]he idea is that wealthy people have, by definition, reaped more of the rewards of our society and our democracy and our economy than have low-income people -- and so, they have an obligation to contribute more back to that society.

Which I proceeded to argue against in that thread (curiously, nobody had an answer for the points I made there).

This is something that really gets my blood boiling, so it’s time to vent a little bit on the subject…