Senator John McCain managed to defeat his close rival Mitt Romney in the Florida Republican Primary on Tuesday, putting him in the lead in delegate count towards that party's nomination.
He also demonstrated a very important point -- prior wins for McCain came largely in states with relatively open primaries/caucuses, where Independent voters were able to give him an edge. The Florida contest, however, was closed to Republicans only, and many people expected Romney to do better among the "party faithful" since McCain is not particularly well-liked by the Republican party apparatus and is subject to criticism for being too moderate. That criticism may be intensified by the reported endorsement of McCain by soon-to-drop-out Rudy Giuliani. Giuliani has been consistently knocked by social conservatives for his relatively moderate stands on abortion, gun control and gay rights; Giuliani and McCain have both been knocked for their stands on immigration as well, so it remains to be seen whether Giuliani's endorsement will help or hurt McCain in the remaining primary season. It likely will help in the general election in November, however, if McCain makes it that far.
I liked McCain in 2000, and was sorry to see him forced out of the running that year. I watched him court the Bush camp over the past 8 years with some distress, as he apparently was trying to establish himself as "next in line" in the Republican party after Bush. During this campaign he's been all over the board trying to be moderate enough to appeal to Independents but conservative enough to try to gain the support of the far right. It didn't look like that approach would work out for him, but after Florida, it just might.
And I'll go out on a limb here: the outcome in November will be determined by the Republican nomination alone, no matter what the Democrats do. If McCain gets the nod, he'll beat either Clinton or Obama, whichever one the Democrats choose. And if McCain doesn't get the nod, then whoever does will be defeated by Clinton or Obama, whichever one the Democrats choose.
I'm feeling a great deal more optimistic about 4 more years of divided government than I have in a long while. Let's hope McCain is able to pull it off...
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