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Monday, December 04, 2006


So why do I have such a negative initial reaction to the idea of Sen. Clinton running for president? I can't think of anything that justifies that reaction. I know I don't have a problem with a wowan being president. Was I influenced by the smear machine?

Regardless of why, she may be a Democratic favorite, but I don't believe she could win the office.

So who could?

Hillary's got the name and she CERTAINLY has the money. So she's gonna be a force in the primary. She's the frontrunner today, but only because she's a placeholder for the Dems. There's no one else even close at the moment. Not even my guy (and the next POTUS, btw) Obama.

She cannot win a general. She's the single candidate that can unite the Republicans and that's not good. She'll also have a major problem in the primary due to her early support for GWB.

Obama is waiting to catch fire right now. If he does, look out. Not even a Rudy/McCain ticket will be able to stop him.

Yeah, I don't have a problem with the idea of a woman president. I don't have a problem with the idea of a black president. But I strongly suspect that enough people in the country DO have a problem with either of those ideas to prevent both Hillary and Obama from winning the general election in 2008.

Obama, for as much promise as he shows, is severely hampered by his lack of experience. Keep in mind that he's only been on the national stage for two years now, and by 2008 he'll have only spent 4 years in the Senate. Granted, that's how much experience John Edwards had in 2004, but then Edwards was running for VP. And he lost.

Hillary's problem, I think, is that she's too well-known, and what people know they don't like. The right doesn't like her because, well, her name is Clinton for one thing. And there was that extremely ill-advised apparent attempt at socialized medicine in 1993, so obviously she's a communist.

The left doesn't like her (now), because she has moderated her positions since entering the Senate, so they apparently believe she has abandoned her progressive roots. In other words, obviously she's no longer a communist.

You need the "mushy middle" to actually win an election, but you can't win if that's all you've got, so Hillary is screwed.

Rudy/McCain? Heh... that sounds like a good topic for the next daily post. ;-)

I firmly believe that the best chance the Democrats have of taking the White House in 2008 is to nominate an energetic, personable Western governor (Richardson, Schweitzer) who has legitimate rural "street cred" (perhaps that would be "dirt road cred"???) Somebody that can win over the poor rural vote which has gone overwhelmingly for Republicans over the last 25 years. Somebody who, when he says he doesn't want to take away your guns or tax you into oblivion, you can actually believe what he says. Richardson has more experience at the national level, but his latino heritage may work against him given the immigration issue. Schweitzer, while less experienced, is truly the one with the stronger rural connection. And he's a bonafide moderate progressive. As dynamic as Obama is, I think Schweitzer has a better chance of actually winning in the general.

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